The Mike Jacobs Conundrum

[Swift]

The Mike Jacobs Conundrum

It’s September 4, 2008 and as the Marlins sit here, the games in September are as much about making up ground on the Mets as they are about fleshing out the 2009 roster. The Marlins have called up Dallas McPherson, effectively putting all of the remaining infielders, save Hanley Ramirez, “on notice.”

What’s most interesting, more interesting than McPherson’s 42 minor league homeruns or his walk-a-thon Marlins debut is that, well, McPherson may be able to make a case that he should replace a Marlin starter, but not the starter we all assumed.

Of the 5 Marlins regulars qualified for the batting title, Hanley Ramirez, Dan Uggla, Mike Jacobs, Jorge Cantu and Jeremy Hermida, Jacobs trails only Ramirez and Uggla in OPS and, for a fun footnote, the only key offensive category not led by Ramirez (RBI) is led by Mike Jacobs. While Jacobs may out rank Cantu in OPS, Cantu does have Mike Jacobs beaten in terms of on-base percentage; however, neither Jacobs’ .288 nor Cantu’s .322 OBP’s are exceptional, as both are the bottom 2 of the aforementioned 5 qualified batters.

Where does that leave the Marlins 2009 plans? Well, for one, let’s look historically at Jacobs’ brief Marlins tenure. If and when Jacobs hits his 30th homerun this season, he becomes just the third left handed regular to hit 30 homeruns as a Marlin, joining Carlos Delgado and Cliff Floyd. If he hits 6 more homeruns, he surpasses Delgado for the most “power productive” season by a left-handed batter in Marlins history. His 76 homeruns put him 10th all time on the Marlins team career list, 5 behind Alex Gonzalez for 9th place. He trails Cliff Floyd’s 110 for the most by a left handed player.

OK, so maybe I’m over evaluating the value of a homerun, and that’s fair criticism, but a look up and down the Marlins career leader board screams a few things to me: (1) We didn’t really have a whole lot of guys stick around to say that Marlins career numbers mean a whole lot. (2) It’s really hard to put up a 30 homerun season when half of your games are played at Pro Player. (3) It’s really really really hard to put up a 30 homerun season when you’re left handed and play half of your games at Pro Player.

Allow me to address some possible criticisms of that conclusion. No, we have not had a whole lot of left handed bats capable of putting up 30 homerun seasons. Off the top of my head, only Delgado, Floyd, Bobby Bonilla and the ghost of top prospect Jeremy Hermida were left-handed (or in the case of Bobby Bonilla switch hitters) with a 30-homerun pedigree or what should have been a 30-homerun pedigree. So, right off the bat (bad pun) there’s a valid criticism. It’s not as if we’ve had Barry Bonds and Adam Dunn playing for us and posting sub-30 homerun seasons. Additionally, our history suggests that, with the exception of Delgado, hitters do substantially better in their second, third and fourth seasons, and by the time that comfort level develops most are traded away, so Jacobs is benefiting from a familiarity not afforded to many of our elite players that have come before him.

Looking objectively, however, suggests that in terms of Florida Marlins history, Jacobs is one of our 10 most productive homerun hitters. Looking at it objectively, Mike Jacobs’ 2008 will be one of the more productive seasons by a left-handed batter. That’s not to say it’s flawless, but in Marlins history, there are only 3 sterling seasons: Hanley Ramirez’ historic 2007, Miguel Cabrera’s MVP caliber 2006 and Gary Sheffield’s should have been MVP 1996.

So I ask, then, what to do with Mike Jacobs? It seems the team is quite happy to let Jorge Cantu play first base, and that’s fine, but it’s the notion that Dallas McPherson somehow upgrades this infield that irks me. Yes, McPherson’s numbers in the minor leagues suggests he walks at a higher rate than Mike Jacobs, but the great intangible is can this left handed hitter conquer the monster that is Pro Player? What’s more, if Mike Jacobs is doing something that is historically significant with the Marlins, why look to change what is working? Yes, Jacobs has room for improvement, but ask Todd Hollandsworth, Bobby Bonilla, Jeremy Hermida and Hee Seop Choi how hard it is to be a left handed hitter with 25 homerun expectations to live up those expectations with Pro Player as the backdrop.

So I look at Dallas McPherson’s 42 AAA homeruns and ask, why risk it? If the team is sold on Cantu, and I see no reason for them not to be sold, I ask why potentially take a lateral step or even a step backwards in going from McPherson to Jacobs? McPherson’s minor league strike out total was terrifying, his minor league K:BB ratio in the minors is neutral, yet discouraging (approximately 3:1). His one stint in the majors that produced 100 at bats (2006) saw a 7:1 K:BB ratio, so we know he’s going to strikeout a ton, and probably not walk enough to make up for it. Guys like Adam Dunn who K at an almost stupid rate are still close to 1.5:1 or 2:1 K:BB ratio. For good measure, Jacobs career K:BB ratio is about 3:1 at the major league level.

To bring this back to the matter initially discussed, Jacobs/Cantu/McPherson and the three players for two positions conundrum, it’s a situation in which the Marlins have a tough call to make with Jacobs making perhaps the most compelling argument to stay.

[Ramp]

I'll be disappointed if Gaby Sanchez isn't at 1b to start 2009.

I don't think he's a very good player.

[Swift]

Originally Posted by Ramp I'll be disappointed if Gaby Sanchez isn't at 1b to start 2009. I don't think he's a very good player.

I excluded Gaby from the conversation because a 24 year old at AA doesn't rev my engine enough to advocate a complete roster turnover.

Maybe we put left field into the mix, but right now we literally have too many players for too few positions, and really none of them have a more compelling case than the others to start, there are plenty of warts on most of these guys.

[Hugg]

Originally Posted by Ramp I'll be disappointed if Gaby Sanchez isn't at 1b to start 2009.

This.

Originally Posted by Ramp I don't think he's a very good player.

I assume this is about Jacobs?

[Hugg]

Originally Posted by Swift I excluded Gaby from the conversation because a 24 year old at AA doesn't rev my engine enough to advocate a complete roster turnover.

Well, Mike Jacobs didn't really get on the radar until a breakout AA campaign. At 24.

[Nny]

I don't see 24 in AA being that big of a deal when we don't use AAA as development anyway

If her was heralded as an OMGWTF prospect, then yeah, that's concerning. But he's, like, heralded as a league average guy.

[Hugg]

Especially for a college player.

[Ramp]

Originally Posted by Hugg I assume this is about Jacobs?

Yes, I don't think Jacobs is a good baseball player.

[Hugg]

I don't think it's a real reach to say that if we had a real AAA affiliate, Gaby wouldn't have spent the whole year in AA anyway. They never move any of our real prospects up to AAA anymore.

[Swift]

Originally Posted by Hugg I don't think it's a real reach to say that if we had a real AAA affiliate, Gaby wouldn't have spent the whole year in AA anyway. They never move any of our real prospects up to AAA anymore.

And I'd say that most of our "real" prospects like Jeremy Hermida show that it's a bad idea to just go ahead and hand the keys to the car over before they can get their feet wet.

[geemoney]

Jake has been a favorite of mine, but I don't see him staying here in 2009.

[Hugg]

Originally Posted by Swift And I'd say that most of our "real" prospects like Jeremy Hermida show that it's a bad idea to just go ahead and hand the keys to the car over before they can get their feet wet.

I just want him to be given a chance to win the job in spring.

Because I believe he will.

I don't want him to be handed it.

[Ice Man]

Originally Posted by Ramp Yes, I don't think Jacobs is a good baseball player.

Compared to who?

He is a good baseball player. Not a Ryan Howard or Albert Pujols, but he's good.

[Ramp]

Originally Posted by Ice Man Compared to who? He is a good baseball player. Not a Ryan Howard or Albert Pujols, but he's good.

Compared to other first basemen in baseball. I think he is below average.