Deadline Shopping List

[Swift]

Deadline Shopping List

July 31st is always circled with a big red x on general manager’s calendars before most teams even finish spring training, and as the Marlins get closer to the date, Larry Beinfest finds himself in an unexpected position: a buyer.

As has been discussed at length, this team needs help in three areas: catcher, the bullpen and the rotation. With Anibal Sanchez on his way back, Josh Johnson already back and Chris Volstad showing his readiness, the team feels it can fix the rotation internally and that is the route they will take. Thus, there’s no point adding anything other than for the rest of the year the Florida Marlins rotation will feature some combination of Scott Olsen, Ricky Nolasco, Josh Johnson, Chris Volstad, Anibal Sanchez, Rick Vandenhurk and Andrew Miller. While that group may not be good enough to lead a team through the post season, it certainly is good enough to get there.

At catcher, John Baker is showing that while he looks really good hitting .180, he’s still hitting .180 and there’s a reason he’s been waived so many times. I’m sure the Marlins would love to see him wrestle the job convincingly away from Matt Treanor (since it seems that Mike Rabelo and Paul Hoover are already afterthoughts) but given Baker’s very weak throwing arm, his offense is going to have to be convincingly above average to have true major league worth. Matt Treanor is basically a backup catcher forced into a starting job, and Paul Hoover is less capable in the batter’s box than most pitchers. With 5 days until the deadline, Baker’s time has probably run out to convince the Marlins.

So where to turn for a catcher? The standings seem to suggest that Toronto (Rod Barajas), Cleveland (Kelly Shoppach) Kansas City (Miguel Olivo, don’t laugh), Washington (Paul LoDuca) and San Francisco (Bengie Molina) are the right combination of teams buried in the standings with a catcher who’s probably available for the right price and also upgrades our situation. Outside of Bengie Molina, and Paul LoDuca if he’s available for nothing, none of the aforementioned names are all that exciting. We know what we’re getting with Olivo (and so does the rest of the division), Shoppach might be cost prohibitive because Cleveland could view Victor Martinez as a long term 1B/DH option and Rod Barajas is, well, Rod Barajas.

This leaves the Marlins in a bind. Do they overpay for a lateral move? Do they sell the farm for a guy like Molina? Do they sell the farm and take out a first, second or third mortgage to convince a team like Detroit or Pittsburgh to trade Pudge Rodriguez or Ryan Doumit? Ultimately, a Pudge reunion may make the most sense for the Marlins. Assuming the team doesn’t part with Chris Volstad, Cameron Maybin or any of the “essential” parts, I can’t see a situation in which the team would truly overpay for Pudge. He’s a marketing machine in Miami as you still see his jersey at home games, he’s a type A free agent so even if he walks, he’ll return two first round draft picks, and ultimately Pudge is probably a safe bet to return to the team in the offseason meaning that Pudge’s price really should factor in the following season and not just the remainder of this season. Still, the Pudge scenario likely plays out after July 31st and in anticipation of the August 31st post season roster deadline.

In the bullpen, it seems every team has several players available; even the ambiguous buyer/seller teams like Atlanta are rumored to be fielding offers for guys like Will Ohman. Sifting through all the rumors and smoke screens leaves the Marlins focusing on two players: Brian Fuentes and George Sherrill. Both have back end of the bullpen experience and both are left handed. The latest rumors have the Marlins shopping Taylor Tankersley as a centerpiece in either trade. At that price, I cannot say that I’d be unhappy adding either, but it seems highly unlikely that either the Orioles or Rockies view that to be enough of a return. In Fuentes, the Marlins get a player who unquestionably upgrades their bullpen and is also a rental.

Knowing that he’s a rental, Fuentes finds himself in proverbial limbo. The Rockies know that they’re going to get no worse than 2 first round draft picks for him and are content to take that as compensation. Teams know that Fuentes is either going to take his service time and walk or take a huge contract to close. Thus, a high stakes poker game has emerged. Ultimately, I expect the Marlins to blink and offer some package centered around Brett Sinkbeil or Ryan Tucker, whether that’s enough for the Rockies is another story. Fuentes’ name has come up in relation to the Marlins in 3 different seasons (’04, ’05 and ’08) so you know that the Marlins interest is very, very real.

Sherrill’s a different story. His peripheral numbers are not very good, yet he has 29 saves. I cannot say that I watch the Orioles with any degree of regularity, but it seems that he’s essentially the left-handed Kevin Gregg; look at his essential stats, just don’t watch him get the job done without a pack of Rolaids. He’s at better than a strikeout per inning, so he probably upgrades the bullpen, and the Marlins have made it clear that adding a second lefty to help Renyel Pinto out is probably their most realistically attained priority, so ultimately if he comes I think there’s no choice but to welcome him with open arms because he clearly fills a need, but I can’t help but think there are equally good options out there that just don’t happen to be closers, and consequently not carry with them a closer’s price tag.

It has almost come to the point of beating a dead horse, but the Marlins have incredible trade upside if they target the right kind of player. Ideally, they’d get a set up kind of reliever and a catcher who can hit anywhere 2-6, thus letting Jacobs and Ross hit 7th and 8th in the order where their feast or famine routine can go along without truly interrupting the flow of the lineup. If they can somehow come away with both, and that they convincing upgrades, you have to believe the Marlins jump ahead of both the Mets (assuming they do not land Matt Holliday to fill in for Moises Alou) and the Phillies (really, this is their team, they’re locked in and not going to upgrade big time anywhere which is as much a testament to their talent as it is their inability to make another big move after the Blanton trade).

If the Marlins can only fill one hole, unless we’re talking Pudge, it probably makes more sense to get a reliever than a Rod Barajas kind of catcher, and I get the vibe the Marlins feel that way too, so get that Fuentes jersey ready equipment team.