2008 Season Preview Part 3

[Swift]

2008 Season Preview Part 3
The Finale: Bench, Bullpen and other players to watch

For all the problems the Marlins have, and believe me, they have many; two areas of this team are pretty solid: the bench and especially the bullpen. Save for the brief run in 2003 when Ugueth Urbina and Braden Looper shared closer/set-up duties and Chad Fox pitched like a man possessed, this may be the best bullpen the Marlins have ever assembled under Larry Beinfest, and almost certainly the best bullpen they have had under Beinfest to open a season. The bench is equally solid and it figures to be a point of strength for the Marlins heading into the season.

The Bullpen

Closer:
Kevin Gregg: Gregg’s coming off a marvelous 2007 that saw him save an improbable 32 games. His splitter is a legitimate ‘out’ pitch and his fastball has enough movement that, combined with his unorthodox delivery, it is able to get hitters out. If there’s a knock on Gregg it’s that he walks far too many hitters (40 in 84 innings last season) to be an elite closer. Still, the nature of the closer’s role – coming into the start of an inning – seems to suit his pitching style just fine. Given that he will turn 30 during the season, a strong start to 2008 combined with the expected Marlins stumble will likely mean that Gregg could be pitching in the back end of a contender's bullpen by August.

Set-Up
Justin Miller: OK, who saw this one coming? The only player in major league baseball to have a dress code rule named after him, Justin Miller and his mandatory long-sleeves simply dominated National League batters, striking out 74 batters in 61 innings and posting an immaculate 5-0 record out of the bullpen. He may not see that kind of success in 2008, but his unusual “slinger” style delivery and an absolutely filthy changeup makes me believe he won’t be hit hard, either. Like Gregg, his age (he’ll be turning 31 in August) makes him a candidate to be sent off at the trade-deadline if he has a strong first half.

Lee Gardner: Another pleasant surprise. Gardner’s heavy sinker kept the ball in the park (2 home runs in 75 innings) and his impeccable control kept batters off the base paths (an almost incomprehensible 1.21 WHIP on a team with a collective WHIP of 1.58). Of the three huge surprises of 2007, Gardner figures to be the one pitcher least likely to replicate his success. That does not mean he is in for a bad 2008, just that his 2007 was simply that superb. Like Gregg and Miller, his age (he’ll be 33) may prevent him from being part of the Marlins’ long-term plans and see him call a new team home on August 1st.

Taylor Tankersley: 2004’s 1st round pick was, for better or worse, much the same pitcher in 2007 that he was in 2006. He struggled initially and was demoted for a brief time, but his strikeout totals remained constant and his slider still has tremendous bite to it. For him to live up to his potential that made him a 1st round pick, the former Alabama standout must either effectively throw his slider for a called strike and not just a swing-and-chase pitch or add some velocity to his fastball that currently sits at 91 to 92 touching 94. If and when Gregg is traded, expect the closer’s job to be Tankersley’s to lose.

Middle Relief

Renyel Pinto: Talk to enough people who watch baseball for a living about the Marlins pitching, and Pinto’s name will inevitably come up several times. He has, almost without a doubt, the best pure stuff on the team. He’s downright electric; righties hit .233 off him last season, lefties .211. When he’s in the strike zone, he’s unhittable, the problem is he’s never consistently in the strike-zone. He presents an interesting situation for the Marlins: he is out of options and there is no chance he would clear waivers, but his erratic control does not suit him well for a role as a reliever who will enter most games in the middle of an inning and with men on base. While in the Cubs organization, Pinto was used as a starter, perhaps the Marlins will try him in the major league rotation this season to see how his stuff is suited to 5 or 6 innings at a time. If he’s left in the bullpen, his erratic control and an absolute glut of quality relievers may force the Marlins to make a tough roster decision with Pinto this season.

Matt Lindstrom: Triple digit heat. Lindstrom has an electric fastball and a very good slider, unfortunately, he relies on the fastball too much and as fast as it comes in, it is often sent back faster. However, in 2007 he was one of Fredi Gonzalez’ most trusted relievers, appearing in 71 games (second on the team to only Kevin Gregg) and he posted a respectable 3.09 ERA to go along with 62 strikeouts in 67 innings. Statistically speaking, he was behind only Lee Gardner in terms of effectiveness among relievers who logged over 50 games for the Marlins in 2007. After the expected July paring down, look for Lindstrom to be auditioned as the primary set up man, or possibly even the closer.

Logan Kensing: How far has he come since the almost surreal 2004 season that saw him start the most important game of the Marlins season in a double header in Wrigley Field? Now that he no longer curls into the fetal position at the mere mention of Aramis Ramirez, Kensing can showcase a very effective slider and solid control for a Marlins team that has converted him to a fireman reliever in the Chad Fox mold. He may never be a star on the team, but good teams need pitchers like him for the 6th and 7th innings. He’ll turn 26 this season, so he figures to be a part of the bullpen for a long time.

Others to watch for

Josh Johnson Tommy John surgery ended his 2007 season and figures to limit, if not altogether eliminate, his 2008. A dark horse for the 2006 rookie of the year award, and the league leader in ERA as late as August, Johnson has a long road back to the majors, so don’t expect to see much of anything from him until 2009, but don’t forget the name, either.

Henry Owens: Remember him? The converted catcher who opened the year as the set up man, took over the closer’s role after Jorge Julio failed miserably and then blew out his arm? Well, assuming he isn’t in the witness protection program or Guantanamo Bay, entirely possible because I don’t think there’s been an update on him since last season, Owens may return to the Marlins in 2008 adding yet another back end quality arm to the Marlins bullpen.

Carlos Martinez: From Jupiter to Miami, Martinez made a huge jump in 2006 and then saw an injury derail most of 2006 and 2007. He pitched in only 2 games for the Marlins in 2007 and spent most of the time in the minors. He’s got a good moving fastball and a tight breaking ball, but the Marlins have so many quality bullpen arms already entrenched, the man called “K-Mart” may need to kick a door down just to get a major league look. If the Marlins purge some of the older arms for prospects at the trade deadline, Martinez may see some time in 2008, but nothing is guaranteed at the moment.

Ryan Tucker: After Chris Volstad, Tucker may be the next member of the 2005 “fab 5” in line for a big league spot. His fastball is an overwhelming pitch, but after that his repertoire is pretty thin. The Marlins mandated that he throw a slider in 2007 in a specified proportion of pitches, and limited the use of his fastball. At the moment, he figures to be a starter in AA Carolina, but everyone seems to believe his future is as a closer, as soon as he develops a quality secondary pitch, look for him to get the call.

Gaby Hernandez: The key return from the Paul LoDuca trade, Hernandez stuck around big league camp long enough this spring for some to think he had a shot at making the rotation as the fifth starter. He doesn’t bust any radar guns, but he throws strikes and logs a lot of innings. Look for him to be among the first to get a look should injury ravage the Marlins rotation.

Aaron Thompson: Another member of the “fab 5” Thompson’s a lefty who is a favorite of Marlins’ owner Jeffrey Loria. His ceiling is not as high as Volstad’s, nor does he have a singularly dominant pitch like Tucker, but his time last season at Jupiter showed tremendous polish for the Texas lefty. He’ll be part of the AA Carolina rotation, and figures to spend most of the year there, however, like Hernandez, he may be among the first to get a call should there be long term injury to the rotation in June or July.

The Bench

Luis Gonzalez: It’s a shame that it took two firesales and a botched World Championship defense for the Marlins to add a left hander of this quality as a bench player. He’s hitting over .300 this spring and should provide the Marlins a quality option that can play left, right and first. If the team protects him against some tougher left-handers, he could put up spectacular numbers. He figures to be the Marlins opening day right fielder with Jeremy Hermida hurt, but once Hermida returns, Gonzalez becomes a 4th outfielder that should anchor the Marlins young clubhouse.

Mike Rabelo: The forgotten piece of the Detroit trade; the switch hitting catcher was assumed to be the front runner for the Marlins catchers job, and at the worst an even split player with Matt Treanor, but an injury has left his status very much up in the air. He’s 28 years old and, like Andrew Miller, is coming home to the state of Florida. There have been some rumblings that the pitchers don’t love throwing to him, and he was having a so-so spring before injury cut it short, but the Marlins still figure to give Rabelo every chance to show he belongs. Ultimately, Rabelo probably won’t be the answer at catcher for the Marlins, but since the upcoming draft is pretty bare in terms of quality catchers, Rabelo should be a part of the Marlins plans for the next couple of seasons.

Alejandro De Aza: Along with Ross, De Aza figures to be the second half of the Marlins centerfield platoon. Unfortunately, De Aza doesn’t feature tremendous offensive upside as he has poor plate discipline and very limited power. However, if his spring explosion continues into the regular season, he may have some value. Like most of the Marlins, he is misused. For most teams De Aza would be a fifth outfielder and pinch runner, instead the Marlins are attempting to make him into a starter. Any headaches he may cause should be short lived, though, as Cameron Maybin should crowd him out some time this season.

Alfredo Amezaga: Super-sub extraordinaire, Amezaga could probably play every position but catcher if needed, and last year he did. Maybe this year he’ll throw an inning or two just to add another superlative to his resume. At the plate, he’s a steady yet unspectacular switch hitter who really struggles from the right side of the plate, which is particularly puzzling since he is a natural right handed player. If Jorge Cantu struggles to start the year, Amezaga could start at third-base, until then he figures to be the number 1 utility player on the bench and the kind of guy that has value to contending teams, so expect to see his name tossed around a lot as the trade deadline nears.

Jason Wood: Why he keeps sticking around is anyone’s guess. He’s probably a great “clubhouse” guy because that .239 batting average says that the final spot on the bench is probably better used on a player who may actually have very little left to prove in the minors but a major league future that is somewhat in doubt which coincidentally brings us to…

Ones to watch

Brett Carroll: Fantastic arm, great glove, strikeout prone bat who probably won’t hit for a great average. His future’s probably as a fourth outfielder, but his breakout minor league season in 2007 has caused some to wonder if he may be capable of being a 20 homer .250-.260 kind of hitter. With what the Marlins figure to do (or rather, not do) in 2008, it’s definitely worth a look.

Dallas McPherson: He was a can’t miss third base prospect who, well, missed. After being cut loose by the Angels, McPherson caught on with the Marlins and was a real sleeper pick to be the Marlins third baseman for 2008. He appeared to still be hampered by a bad back, among other things, and struck out way too often in the few at bats he got with the main spring team. It came as no surprise when the team optioned him to AAA Albuquerque and should he show even a portion of what made him such a high profile prospect, he may be with the Marlins by June. Considering that Jorge Cantu may be a spring mirage, McPherson could have many chances to win the third base job.

Cameron Maybin: There’s not much left to be said that hasn’t been said already. He may be the next Preston Wilson, he may be the right handed Ken Griffey Junior. What is certain is that he is very raw, and the Marlins made the right decision in optioning him to AA Carolina. Now, the only thing standing between Miami and Maybin is Maybin himself. As soon as he starts hitting and cutting down on the strikeouts, he’ll be up for good.

Gaby Sanchez: A right handed first base product of the University of Miami who got 13 spring at bats with the team, about ten more than I was expecting. That he hung around long enough to play in seven games speaks volumes that the Marlins either have confidence in him, or diminished confidence in Mike Jacobs. Sanchez should start the season in AA Carolina, but a late summer call up is not out of the question with him absolutely inserting his name into the conversation for first base starter in 2009.

Chris Coghlan: There’s almost no chance he makes it to the majors in 2008, but after torching Greensboro in 2007, a late season call up to Jupiter cooled him down noticeably. If his struggles continue, and Uggla is unable to hit for average, the Marlins may be in a real tough bind for 2009.

Fredi Gonzalez: The manager? Am I kidding? Well, not entirely. Gonzalez left more than a few ardent followers of the team (and allegedly some in the organization as well) under whelmed by his first season as manager. He didn’t handle the media well, he didn’t handle internal problems exceptionally well and his overall passive nature on a team that is set to struggle has some (including myself) seeing a lot of John Boles in him. Boles, of course, is the manager of the Marlins from 1999-2001 who was dismissed after a team anarchy stemming from an incident in which former Mets manager Bobby Valentine dominated an on field conversation with umpires for the better part of 10 minutes without as much as a peep from Boles. Should the Marlins start off slow and Gonzalez’ style not change, some of the more outspoken malcontents on the team may vent their frustrations with Gonzalez’ style and force the Marlins hand. My sleeper pick for the first manager to be dismissed in 2008.

Outlook: It really is a fantastic bullpen, it’s unfortunate that it is wasted on the least promising Marlins team of the last 8 seasons. There is hope that Lindstrom, Tankersley and Kensing somehow stake a claim to the 7th, 8th or 9th inning and give the Marlins a semblance of stability for the next 4 years. The quality arms coming up mean that older players like Gregg, Miller and Gardner can be traded to restock a farm system that could use an infusion of capable position players. The bench, unlike recent Marlins seasons, actually has several players capable of filling in as a starter if injury sets in and should be a relative strength of the team. Aside from the assumed inclusion of Jason Wood, there really isn’t a player on the bench who doesn’t have something to prove for 2008 and beyond, and in the case of Luis Gonzalez, he’s playing for a spot on a contending team and perhaps another contract that will give him a shot at 3,000 career hits. Should Maybin earn a spot as a starter and he pushes one of Cody Ross, Josh Willingham or Mike Jacobs out of the lineup, the bench figures to be even stronger.

Final Thoughts: There are some things to like about this team, for starters, Hanley Ramirez may end 2008 with his name firmly entrenched in the “best player in baseball” debate. In addition, the bullpen is quite strong, and if the Marlins do the right thing and let Ricky Nolasco close games after shipping off Kevin Gregg, Nolasco, along with Tankersley, Lindstrom and Kensing could form an elite back end of the bullpen that will be able to provide some semblance of stability.

The lineup should hit for power, and 5 everyday players could hit 25 homeruns apiece. As a team, the Marlins probably won’t hit for a great average, should be mostly station to station on the base-paths and it may also top 1,400 strikeouts. Ultimately, it’s not what these players do with their bats that will be concerning, it will be their gloves. Mike Jacobs may be the worst defensive regular first baseman in the national league, Hanley Ramirez’ throwing arm is inconsistent, Dan Uggla is not exceptional at going to his left (exacerbating Jacobs’ short comings at fielding his position) and Jorge Cantu may have no lateral movement whatsoever. As a group, this may be the worst infield defense the Marlins have ever assembled, and that does not bode well for pitchers like Chris Volstad and Sergio Mitre.

In the outfield, the Marlins have two corner outfielders with starter quality bats but shaky gloves. Josh Willingham is a capable defender in left, but he is probably better suited to a spot on the infield, probably at first base. The team still lets him take ground balls there, so keep an eye on that. In right, Jeremy Hermida has defensive lapses that boggle the mind, and maybe when he’s annually hitting .330 they will be overlooked, but until he gets there (and even when he gets there) Hermida needs to cut down on simply giving away outs.

Finally, the rotation has the blueprint of something that could be special, but not this year. Andrew Miller along with Chris Volstad and Anibal Sanchez should give the Marlins a good look at the future, and the flood of September callups should let the Marlins see a promising future. Unfortunately, every season seems to bring a rash of injuries to the rotation so the Marlins goal for 2008 may simply be health and nothing more.

Unless the Marlins do something truly shocking like signing Barry Bonds to play left field, this is a team that is probably one big bat away in its lineup and a year away in its pitching staff from making some noise. Should the defense surprise everyone and become an above average unit, there is certainly enough offensive talent here to score some runs, but ultimately, there is enough defensive shortcomings to give those runs right back. The rotation probably won’t help itself out a lot either as there isn’t a true strikeout pitcher in the bunch, and there is a real concern that the young arms will wear down as the season goes on and they close in on 185 innings. Vegas has the Marlins 2008 win total over-under set at 68 ½, my best guess is that they win 65 games. There’s just enough talent for them to stave off 100 losses, and the bullpen is good enough to protect most of the leads they are given after the 6th inning, but the defense should let starters down early and often, and August and September figure to be exceptionally brutal with only 12 games in the two months combined against teams who figure to be out of the playoff race.

[JJ]

Fantastic read and a fitting conclusion.

Thanks for putting the work and time in to this.

[CrimsonCane]

Great stuff Swift

[Fritz]

Great writeup.

Rep'd

[Juanky]

Awesome job.

I'm not as high on some of the relievers (notably Gregg and Miller), but it overall sucks that it took this long to get the pen we needed in 2004 and 2005.