2008 Season Preview Part 2

[Swift]

2008 Season Preview Part 2
The Rotation

In 2007 the Marlins had a veritable revolving door of starting pitchers, having 11 different pitchers start at least 4 games for them in 2007. With workhorse Dontrelle Willis gone to Detroit, the Marlins are left with a rotation that does not feature a player who has logged 200 innings in a single season. With that in mind, and knowing that a major league team needs to log approximately 1,460 innings a year, the Marlins figure to use much more than simply their announced five man rotation. Here’s a look at the eight most prominent pitchers that figure to get a shot at starting games for the fish in ’08.

Scott Olsen: The incumbent “ace.” I feel like I need a shower after saying that. Scott’s coming off a 2007 season that left much to be desired. He was inconsistent, he fought teammates, he fought the law (and the law won) and most importantly, he declined in every conceivable category used to evaluate a pitcher, save for starts made. Olsen remains a two pitch pitcher who releases his slider and fastball from different enough arm angles so that he is basically telegraphing what is coming. He fails to change speed on a fastball that tops out at about 94 miles-per-hour and doesn’t have the habit of missing a lot of bats. His slider is still a very effective major league pitch, but hitters had no difficulty laying off in anticipation of a fastball. Olsen needs to develop a capable third pitch with similar arm action to a fastball. Paging Mark Wiley, get this man a changeup.

Mark Hendrickson: The opening day starter. The tall lefty had offseason eye surgery that he swears makes him a changed man. He’s going to have to hope for a complete transformation as his last two seasons were not pretty, punctuated with him being removed from a starting job last season and being relegated to mop-up work with the Dodgers. He does throw three pitches effectively, and this spring his numbers have been great combined with a seemingly devastating changeup. However, spring stats don’t amount to much more than a nice footnote and Hendrickson’s track record is simply underwhelming. Still, the sunshine state has been kind to Hendrickson as his two full seasons with Tampa are his two best as a pro; maybe it’s something in the water, and as Marlins fans, we better hope so.

Andrew Miller: Most would claim that Cameron Maybin was the highest quality player to come back from Detroit in the December trade that shipped off Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis, I’d disagree. If anyone’s turning into a perennial all-star from this group, it’s Miller. His stint at UNC was otherworldly and he was basically unhittable his final season in 2006. Unfortunately, after Detroit made him the 6th pick in the 2006 draft, his agent, Scott Boras, insisted on a guaranteed major league contract complete with a guaranteed September call up. Rather than following the traditional phenom path of 150 minor league innings and then a permanent place in the big leagues, Miller only pitched 5 minor league innings in 2006 and 80 in 2007, suffice to say, he was rushed. Miller shows signs of that as he struggles to consistently throw strikes that scouts attribute to an inconsistent release point that results from his across the body delivery. Until Miller hones his mechanics to generate a consistent release point, he won’t be able to fully show off his five-pitch repertoire that features, among other things, a fastball that tops 96 miles per hour.

Rick Vandenhurk: Following a meteoric rise in 2007 that saw him make 18 starts for the major league team, Vandenhurk, like most of the other Marlins pitchers, needs to show consistency in line with his potential. Vandenhurk may be the most puzzling of all the young arms as his velocity fluctuates the most from start to start and month to month. When he debuted, he was touching 98 with a filthy curveball, as the season wore down, he was struggling to hit 92 and was eventually shut down. Some swear he has ace potential, others see a player who is more suited to the bullpen. Provided injury does not derail his 2008 as his tremendous innings bump of 141 from 2006 to 2007 has him the pre-season favorite to be the annual Marlin pitcher to make the dreaded visit to Dr. Andrews, Vandenhurk may be the darkhorse favorite to lead the staff in wins.

Ricky Nolasco: Aside from Hanley Ramirez, Nolasco may be the only player brought in from the trades of the 2005 firesale that has a future with the team past 2008. He throws four quality pitches for a strike and his curveball may be the best on the staff, if not the entire Marlins system. Former Marlins manager Joe Girardi claims he has all the makings of the next great major league closer. The problem with that, of course, is that the Marlins insist on using Nolasco in the rotation. If Nolasco never has to face the Mets, he may be a Cy Young contender, but being in the same division as a team that just absolutely has his number is problematic, as is struggling the second and third time through the order. Until Nolasco shows that he is able to get stronger as the game goes on, a calling card for top of the rotation players, he figures to be a guy whose future is in the bullpen, and given his wide arsenal of pitches, that may be a great fit for both player and team.

Chris Volstad: The first of the “fab 5” pitchers taken in the 2005 draft that saw the Marlins turn 5 first round picks into 5 young arms and by all indications, the first to make the big leagues. There remains a slight possibility he may break camp with the Marlins, but given that he is starting the Saturday game against the Yankees at Pro Player, and that the Marlins will not need a 5th starter until the second week of the season, it seems likely that the Marlins would rather send Volstad to AA Carolina or perhaps even A Jupiter to make one last tune up start rather than getting inconsistent work in the big league bullpen. Volstad’s burrowing 2-seam fastball and heavy sinker gets a lot of ground ball outs, and his large frame lends itself well to his downward plane delivery. The one problem Volstad has is that he doesn’t miss a lot of bats and that could be very problematic with a sub-par defense behind him. Still, Volstad and Andrew Miller figure to give Marlins a view of a potentially lethal duo that could be the class of the division in as little as a year’s time.

Anibal Sanchez: Arguably the best story of the 2006 season, Sanchez was ready to turn in a 2007 season that would cement him as staff ace, instead, a shoulder injury ended his season in May. Sanchez remains on pace for a return sometime in June or July and his return may be the most anticipated story of the 2008 season. If he comes back as the pitcher that we saw in 2006, the Marlins have an enviable rotation, if he is unable to return to form, the Marlins will have some tough questions to answer. It seems that much of the Marlins’ hopes for a quick turn around hinge on Sanchez being the ace type pitcher he can be if he is healthy.

Sergio Mitre: Perhaps the least durable and lowest ceilinged of the Marlins pitchers, Mitre’s 2007 may be more of an active audition for a role with another team than it is to prove himself as a long-term member of the Marlins. His 2007 season was brilliant at times, and downright awful at others. His one redeeming quality is that even when he is getting hit hard, the ball rarely gets out of the ballpark, but like Volstad, his constant pitching to contact could prove very problematic with a poor defense behind him. Mitre figures to start the season on the disabled list and if past history is any indicator, he’s a safe bet to spend at least a month of the season on the DL. The Marlins may look for him to log some innings with the big club to protect some of their younger arms, and the team may even push him hard enough in hopes of showcasing him to another team that could use a guy like him at the back end of the rotation, but look for him to be out of the rotation, if not the entire organization, by August.

Outlook: If this rotation is healthy, it at least has a few players that are worth watching. The problem is, the Marlins have demonstrated time and again since Jeffrey Loria bought the team that spending on the medical staff is just not going to happen. Vandenhurk and possibly even Sanchez should probably book their plane tickets for Birmingham now, and call Dr. Andrews to make sure he saves the date. Miller could be great, and my gut says some day he will be, but he simply has no experience or continued success at any professional level to believe that is coming this year. Volstad figures to be victimized by the poor infield defense, and Anibal Sanchez may be lucky to make 10 starts this season. Still though, the Marlins aren’t playing for 2008 and if no serious injuries befall the top three of Miller, Sanchez and Volstad, that trio may combine for 95 starts and 50 wins by as soon as 2009.

[JJ]

Informative and an easy, interesting read.

Swift has probably written two of the most if not the most informed pieces on the Marlins going in to this year that I've seen in a variety of other places and by people who get paid to cover baseball.

Hopefully he gets feedback here or through rep comments and if someone disagrees they offer up their opposing views which would help these blogs thrive.

Ace stuff.

[bobbob1313]

Not sure I agree with your assessment of Anibal. You've always been a lot higher than I have on him, and I just don't think he's got ace potential. His problems in 07 were just about the least surprising on the team.

[Jewb]

I read the whole thing and I appreciate the evaluations. You write very well, and as JJ said, very informative. Good job!

[Swift]

Originally Posted by bobbob1313 Not sure I agree with your assessment of Anibal. You've always been a lot higher than I have on him, and I just don't think he's got ace potential. His problems in 07 were just about the least surprising on the team.

He's got 4 legit pitches, a consistent release point and the ability to change speeds pretty well.

The only knocks I see on him are durability (big time, no doubt, even before this recent rash) and a lower velocity than you'd want out of a guy in this day of big bodies and fast bats.

[bobbob1313]

If he can replicate what he did in the minors, I'd be happy, but his breif stint in the majors showed no ability to miss bats and he walked too many. His success in 06 was flukey as hell.

[St. Jimmy]

I've never seen Anibal as an ace type. I see him more of a 2-3 starter. Yes, he can throw his pitches for strikes, but none of his pitches really pop.

[Juanky]

I think Anibal's status is pretty flux right now. If he comes back with some bang then he'll be back into top tier status, but we can't assume things coming back from an injury (especially shoulder). I get worried when I think of his situation and remember the AJ Burnett saga.

As for those starting the season with the club, count me on the Hendrickson and Miller bandwagons. I think Hendrickson will have a career year now that he can actually see properly, and the change is still the deadliest pitch in baseball when it is working right.