2008 Season Preview Part 1

[Swift]

2008 Season Preview Part 1
The Position Players

Opening day is less than a week away, so before the Marlins take the field against Johan Santana and the Mets, it’s a great time to take a look at what I think 2008 holds for the Marlins. In this first part, we’ll take a look at the players that figure to get a prominent role in the lineup.

Catcher: Matt Treanor – It’s been 14 years in the making, but it finally looks like Matt Treanor is going to earn a spot in an Opening Day starting lineup. Of course, the term ‘earn’ could be debated as Treanor basically won the spot by default after Mike Rabelo was sidelined by injury, but the 32 year old Treanor has been nothing but a professional in his 4 seasons with the big club. He’s coming off his best season as a major leaguer, and while he will never be the player many expected him to be while with Kansas City, Treanor’s an excellent defensive catcher who can hold his own while hitting 7th or 8th in a National League lineup.

First Base: Mike Jacobs – He’s ready for year #3 as the Marlins everyday first baseman, and of all the Marlins regulars, he may be the sleeper pick for ‘breakout’ player of the year. He’s got a textbook left-handed power swing; in all likelihood, he’s going to be batting 4th or 5th for the whole year, and he’s going to be motivated by the arbitration award that awaits him at year’s end. However, the problems he brought with him from the Mets have not yet been resolved. He has poor patience at the plate (striking out over 100 times in each of his two full seasons with the Marlins in under 140 games played), he is not an exceptional defensive player, and he has a hard time staying healthy (he played in only 114 games last season). Jacobs seems to have settled into what he will be as a pro: a player who will hit around .265 and hit 25 home runs. There’s absolutely nothing wrong with that production from a player, the only problem is the Marlins expect Jacobs to produce like a cleanup hitter, something he has demonstrated to simply not be possible.

Second Base: Dan Uggla – Well, the power’s for real. A year after hitting 27 home runs as a rule v phenom and rookie all-star, Uggla hit 31, but his batting average dropped precipitously. Finishing 2007 with a .245 batting average, Uggla enters 2008 with perhaps the most to prove out of any of the Marlins. Another high power, low average year and the Marlins may put their offensively gifted second-baseman on the trade block as they look to open up a spot for Chris Coghlan; if Uggla returns to 2006 form, the Marlins would be foolish to trade a second baseman capable of hitting for both high power and average.

Third Base: Jorge Cantu – Cantu was handed the job after the team waived assumed front-runner, Jose Castillo, and optioned former top prospect, Dallas McPherson, to AAA. Cantu, who came to camp as a non-roster invitee, was the story of the Marlins spring. He leads the team with a .404 average and has hit two homeruns this spring. Some scouts have said that this is the best he has looked since his marvelous 2005 season, and Cantu himself claims he is in the best shape of his life, but at this time of year, what player doesn’t say that? The Marlins hope that, at 26, Cantu still has his baseball ahead of him. The decline he underwent from 2005 to 2007 is almost unbelievable. He hit 28 homeruns in 2005, driving in 117 on a Tampa team that did not score many runs to hitting just 15 homeruns (punctuated by only 1 homerun in 2007) in the two years since. In that same time, he’s seen injuries happen, a reduction in playing time and even a trade from the Rays to the Reds. Cantu is a long shot to regain his 2005 form, and he is a marked defensive downgrade from 2006 and 2007 third baseman Miguel Cabrera, but Cantu doesn’t figure to be in the Marlins long-term plans. A hot start and he will likely be manning a contender’s hot corner come August.

Shortstop: Hanley Ramirez – Maybe the most talented player in the National League if not all of baseball. Ramirez can do it all, he can hit for power and average, he can run, he has a great, if inaccurate, arm and a glove that scouts swear will one day make him a gold-glover at short. Yet for a player who has all that going for him, he could be the one person baseball as a whole may feel the most sorry for. He toils in relative anonymity in Florida and the National League East while other shortstops like Jimmy Rollins and Jose Reyes (both of whom are statistically inferior to Ramirez) grab the headlines. Help doesn’t appear to be soon coming as Ramirez is headed for a tremendous arbitration payday along with fellow 2006ers that could put the notoriously cheap Marlins in a financial bind and may bring about the 4th fire sale in franchise history. On the field though, there is no ceiling for Ramirez, he’s capable of being a 30/30, 40/40 or maybe even the first 50/50 player in baseball history. The only potential pitfall is that Ramirez puts too much pressure on himself to do everything, as he did when he was briefly inserted into the 3rd spot in the lineup last season.

Left Field: Josh Willingham – If you look closely enough, you may see a little Jeff Conine in the “Hammer.” Not fleet of foot, but a capable defensive player who can play left field, first base, and even third base if needed. He’ll take a lot of walks and seems to be a lock to hit 20 or more home runs every season. It’s hard to find a fault in his game, and perhaps the only gripe is that the Marlins are using him incorrectly as his bat does not suit a spot in the middle of the lineup, but he finds himself there by default. Like Uggla, Willingham may have only this season to prove that he is an irreplaceable part of the team’s core as he will be 29 on opening day and is coming off a 2007 that did not greatly build on a promising 2006.

Center Field: Cody Ross – While it has been announced that Alejandro De Aza and Cody Ross will share center in a platoon situation, Ross’ only obstacle to being the full time starter, aside from prospect Cameron Maybin, is his troublesome hamstring. Ross had a spectacular 2007 as a part time player who specialized as a lefty killer, posting 12 homeruns and a .335 average in under 200 at-bats. Ross showed flashes of a player who could hit 30 homeruns a season if injuries don’t slow him down. Definitely a player to keep an eye on as Ross is regarded as a positive influence in the clubhouse and a player who would run through a wall for his team. Having just turned 28, Ross could parlay a strong 2008 into a long-term role on the team and force the Marlins to make some tough decisions on Josh Willingham and Mike Jacobs.

Right Field: Jeremy Hermida – The Golden Boy. Everyone - scouts, fans, players, analysts – know he’s going to hit, the only question being when. He closed out 2007 very strongly, finishing the year with 18 homeruns and a .296 average, but injuries still prevented him from playing in even 130 games. Hermida, for better or worse, may be the second coming of JD Drew, and while any team would love to have that kind of bat in their lineup, the Marlins simply cannot afford to have a premium player be so fragile. Because Hermida is the one position player the Marlins have besides Hanley Ramirez who possesses a baseball pedigree, and because Hermida does not figure to be in line for a tremendous arbitration payday, he should be part of the Marlins short term plans, but another injury plagued season and the Marlins may have no choice but to begin searching for his replacement.

Overview: It’s going to be a long season for the Marlins. While they may have five players top 25 homeruns (Ramirez, Uggla, Willingham, Jacobs, Hermida) their porous defense and inability to hit for a high average as a team (only Ramirez and Hermida could be considered threats to top .300) stand as glaring weaknesses. The Marlins spent all off-season preaching of a return to pitching and defense and then name Jorge Cantu the starter at third, who could be arguably the worst defensive regular infielder in the National League, and fail to address their rotation. The lineup will hit for power and figures to be a part of a lot of 6-4 ballgames, but they may just come up on the short end too often.

[JJ]

Good stuff Swift.

Well written and I can tell you put time and thought in to it.

I'll be looking forward to part 2.

[Jewb]

Good stuff.

[St. Jimmy]

...the Marlins would be foolish to trade a third baseman capable of hitting for both high power and average.

Good stuff Swift.

Can't wait to see your opinion on our lovely rotation.

[Flum]

Great writeup, great read. Rep'd.

[McLevin]

Originally Posted by Swift he is a marked defensive downgrade from 2006 and 2007 third baseman Miguel Cabrera

Never ever ever thought I'd read that about anyone ever.

[Juanky]

^ What Levin said.

I like your take on almost all positions. I really can't find a major point of contention anywhere.