Trade Hermida and Go After a Free Agent?

[Nny]

the more I think about it, the more I think it would be best to trade Hermida (given good return of course, but doesn't have to be a "blow us away" offer).

Fact remains he has three years until FA. Very unlikely we'll resign him. He'll hit FA the offseason before our stadium opens up, and you can't really expect the payroll to bloom right away. I expect a steady incline while revenue goes up.

I mean if Hermida produces, I think it's fair to assume his last year with the Marlin's is '10. If he doesn't produce, he won't even make it through '09. We're looking at having him for 1-2 years...or the length of a FA contract

Yes it's selling low off the numbers but people still buy into his potential.

The main thing is though.

The market is filled with corner OFers that will contibute to what Hermida will contribute if he works out.

Their price continues to fall.

We should be able to be able to sign one and stay under the 40m barrier. I mean, the max the rest of these guys are going to get is 10m per. Likely more around 8 like Burrell. Plus you start having to wonder about them only getting 1/8, at which point maybe we can swoop in and do something like 2/13?

I mean, we can sign, guarantee the production plus get specs/fill other holes. Or keep hermida, who might play at that production level or might be a bitch again, but does save money.

Here's the list of available corner OFers minus the shit

Moises Alou
Garret Anderson
Adam Dunn
Cliff Floyd
Manny Ramirez
Bobby Abreu
Cliff Floyd
Ken Griffey Jr.
Eric Hinske

Eric Hinske and Cliff Floyd are solid options but are also borderline 4th OFers and not worth giving up Hermida, so they can be crossed out. Same goes for Garret Anderson and probably Griffey, plus they have injury issues. And those injury issues then go over to Alou. No point in taking a risk on somebody who will play only 50 games. And Manny is going to get paid, so we can cross him out (Plus he's only one that would cost us draft picks).

This leaves us with two names.

Adam Dunn
Bobby Abreu

Would suck to put up with Dunn's horrible defense but he's basically on par with a lowmid-to-mid OPS average defensive LFer (like .830-.850)

Abreu also has bad defense, although it should improve going over to LF, and should be about the same as a lowmid average defensive LFer (like .815-.825)

We lost our biggest suitor in TB, as they seemed to be the only one offering anything when we were shopping Hermida during the meetings, so that outside factor comes into play of course. If you get shit for Hermida, pointless in doing it.

Also always bonds, hehe.

[JJ]

Well thought out post but what has happened this off-season to make you think the Marlins would trade someone cheap away to go sign someone who (even with the falling prices in this market) would potentially cost around a third of their current payroll?

[Fritz]

I wish that Bonds wasn't blackballed so we could sign him.

[JJ]

Originally Posted by Fritz I wish that Bonds wasn't blackballed so we could sign him.

I think Bonds would be quite terrible right now and his defense would be even worse.

[McLevin]

Originally Posted by JJ I think Bonds would be quite terrible right now and his defense would be even worse.

I'd still expect a .400+ OBP and 20-25 HR. You don't lose your eye, and while the game-changing power would be gone, it would still be solid.

His defense, well, that could be a different story.

[bobbob1313]

Last season was the time to go after Bonds.

[JJ]

Originally Posted by McLevin I'd still expect a .400+ OBP and 20-25 HR. You don't lose your eye, and while the game-changing power would be gone, it would still be solid. His defense, well, that could be a different story.

Impossible to qualify it but 2 years removed from live game action and pitching along with recent hip surgery that won't even have him ready for spring training makes me really question that projection. He would come cheap but I'd be stunned if he was any sort of upgrade over Hermida and he wouldn't be playing more than a year anyways.

[McLevin]

I think he'd start the season bringing nothing but OBP and end the season bringing OBP with quite a bit of pop. So, perhaps that sort of agrees with your stance too.

[El Fantasma]

Bonds' defense at this point may be even worse than Hermida's which is saying something. That, and like JJ said, there's really no reason to believe he'd be any sort of productive. He's old, hasn't played in a couple of years, and just had surgery. Not exactly baseball fit.

[Ramp]

Pretty much what everyone has echoed here...

no reason to believe the Marlins would spend money for that vacant outfield spot and the Marlins would more than likely not get much of anything in return for Hermida either

[Nny]

never said I thought the Marlins would. Wasn't even really meant that much for discussion, was just my own musings on the topic, a "what I would look at doing". Not that it really matters that it was split though.

[jnexs1]

Nice post well thought out, but i have to disagree. Although many Marlins fan have become frustrated with Hermida's production, and his seemingly lack of effort, we still dont know what Jermey is actually going through. Let me explain, from the minute he was drafted in 2002, he was considered a star, a lefty with a sweet swing and unlimited potential thats alot of pressure for a kid who was only 18 at the time. Although he soared through the minors and hit a grandslam in his first pro at-bat, he still hasnt lived up to his full potential, lets look at the facts and see why. 2006 was supposed to be his big breakout year, he got hurt in spring training(bone bruise on his knee which kept him out for almost 2 months) and the rest of the year was kind of a flop for Hermida as he just had nagging injuries that year. 2007 was a little different Jermey, he started off slow in the first half, got injuried and then came back in the second half and put up some very impressive numbers, and finshed with a 297 batting avg, 17 homers and about 60 RBI's in limited playing time, and even though 2008 was looked at as a step back for Jermey, because he struggled agian and lost his starting job to cody ross(who by the way i can absolutly say deserves a shot to play everyday with any club) my point is this, Jermey is only 24, and sometimes when your are that young and have such big expectations from the people around you, and you fail to live up to those expectations it can really mess with your head. Although i do agree that we will probably not be able to keep Hermida passed 2009, i wouldnt write him off just yet. I still have confidence that he can help our club and be a productive Major League right fielder, he has all the tools in the world and if he can put it together a star will be born in 2009.

[Hugh Longfellow]

With the exception of Manny Ramirez, none of the free agents you mention is a marked upgrade from Hermida. Of course, Manny's pricetag is impossible, and he's a short-term investment. Hermida still has considerable upside and is a bargain. Now that being said, if Hermida has a breakout year, hitting over 300/25HR/100RBI, his trade value next off season would be substantial. That could be a time to trade.

Originally Posted by Nny the more I think about it, the more I think it would be best to trade Hermida (given good return of course, but doesn't have to be a "blow us away" offer). Fact remains he has three years until FA. Very unlikely we'll resign him. He'll hit FA the offseason before our stadium opens up, and you can't really expect the payroll to bloom right away. I expect a steady incline while revenue goes up. I mean if Hermida produces, I think it's fair to assume his last year with the Marlin's is '10. If he doesn't produce, he won't even make it through '09. We're looking at having him for 1-2 years...or the length of a FA contract Yes it's selling low off the numbers but people still buy into his potential. The main thing is though. The market is filled with corner OFers that will contibute to what Hermida will contribute if he works out. Their price continues to fall. We should be able to be able to sign one and stay under the 40m barrier. I mean, the max the rest of these guys are going to get is 10m per. Likely more around 8 like Burrell. Plus you start having to wonder about them only getting 1/8, at which point maybe we can swoop in and do something like 2/13? I mean, we can sign, guarantee the production plus get specs/fill other holes. Or keep hermida, who might play at that production level or might be a bitch again, but does save money. Here's the list of available corner OFers minus the shit Moises Alou Garret Anderson Adam Dunn Cliff Floyd Manny Ramirez Bobby Abreu Cliff Floyd Ken Griffey Jr. Eric Hinske Eric Hinske and Cliff Floyd are solid options but are also borderline 4th OFers and not worth giving up Hermida, so they can be crossed out. Same goes for Garret Anderson and probably Griffey, plus they have injury issues. And those injury issues then go over to Alou. No point in taking a risk on somebody who will play only 50 games. And Manny is going to get paid, so we can cross him out (Plus he's only one that would cost us draft picks). This leaves us with two names. Adam Dunn Bobby Abreu Would suck to put up with Dunn's horrible defense but he's basically on par with a lowmid-to-mid OPS average defensive LFer (like .830-.850) Abreu also has bad defense, although it should improve going over to LF, and should be about the same as a lowmid average defensive LFer (like .815-.825) We lost our biggest suitor in TB, as they seemed to be the only one offering anything when we were shopping Hermida during the meetings, so that outside factor comes into play of course. If you get shit for Hermida, pointless in doing it. Also always bonds, hehe.

[marlinsman1120]

the marlins were interested in Nady last year. and the yanks want to trade him.
how about trading for nady because, the yankees are retards and we can pull one over them, and the asking price seems low.

[lou]

Originally Posted by marlinsman1120 the marlins were interested in Nady last year. and the yanks want to trade him. how about trading for nady because, the yankees are retards and we can pull one over them, and the asking price seems low.

Nady is going to make like $4.5-5 million in arb, and then becomes a free agent. A terrible fit considering we'd have to trade them a decent RP to get him and then lose him.

We need to grab Pudge for $2-3 million bucks, then figure out who our 6th SP is going to be. If worse comes to worse with the OF situation, we could always demote EB, go with AA as the sole middle infielder, and call up Raynor/Carroll/Jai. Or, hope to god McDallas or Cantu can moonlight out in left.

[Hugg]

I like the reasoning of the Yankees being retards though.